South Africa is among the countries expected to face a significant increase in heat-related deaths over the coming months as a potentially powerful Super El Niño pushes temperatures well above normal.
Picture: Fatih Turan / Pexels
Researchers at the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago project that about 1 200 additional heat-related deaths could occur in South Africa between September 2026 and February 2027, compared with what would normally be expected during the same period.
The figure places South Africa among the 50 countries with the highest projected number of additional heat-related deaths during the six-month period.
The projections come as scientists warn that the current El Niño, which began in June, could produce unusually hot conditions across large parts of the world. The Climate Impact Lab estimates global land temperatures could average 1.2°C above normal, with about 44% more extremely hot days than would typically be expected.
Importantly, the figures are estimates of excess deaths compared with a normal year, rather than a prediction that these people will definitely die.
While South Africa’s projected figure is significant, the expected impact is considerably larger in parts of Africa’s Sahel region.
Researchers estimate that the Sahel could experience 66 800 additional heat-related deaths between September and February, with Nigeria accounting for almost half of that total.
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Nigeria alone is projected to record around 31 400 additional heat-related deaths, followed by Sudan at 17 500. Niger is estimated at about 10 000, while Chad is projected to see around 8 000 additional deaths.
The scale of the projections highlights how uneven the effects of extreme heat can be, with some of the world’s most vulnerable regions expected to experience the largest increases.
Hundreds of thousands of deaths projected worldwide
Globally, the Climate Impact Lab estimates that 239 000 additional heat-related deaths could occur between September and February, with an uncertainty range of roughly 11 000 either side of that estimate.
Looking at the wider El Niño period from June 2026 through February 2027, the researchers project around 451 000 excess heat-related deaths worldwide compared with a normal year.
Other regions are also expected to experience major increases.
India is projected to see around 15 800 additional heat-related deaths, while Brazil could record about 13 300. In Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia are collectively projected to see another 19 400 deaths, while Indonesia is estimated at 19 300.
The researchers say the extreme heat would come alongside other potential effects associated with El Niño, including drought, wildfires and flooding caused by changes in rainfall patterns.
One of the more striking findings is just how unusual the expected temperatures could be.
The Climate Impact Lab says the conditions projected during the current El Niño resemble temperatures that climate models indicate could become more typical roughly 20 years from now.
The researchers describe the event as a glimpse of the hotter conditions expected in the future, arriving before many communities have had time to adapt fully.
The report also points to measures that can help reduce the impact of extreme heat, including heat-warning systems, health outreach to vulnerable people, cooling centres, hydration stations, protections for outdoor workers and increased healthcare capacity.
For South Africa, the projected 1 200 additional deaths therefore form part of a much bigger picture: an unusually hot period that could place additional pressure on communities and health systems across the country and the wider Global South.
Article previously shared by Cape Etc
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