Jet fuel supply could take months to stabilise after Middle East conflict
Airlines around the world are bracing for a prolonged squeeze on jet fuel as the fallout from the Middle East conflict continues to ripple through global markets. Even with the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, aviation experts warn that normalising fuel supplies and stabilising prices won’t happen overnight.
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The Strait of Hormuz and the ripple effect
According to IOL, The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas, has been largely paralysed in recent weeks due to the ongoing conflict. While a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran promises temporary safe passage, Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), cautions that the crisis has already caused longer-term disruption to refining capacity in the region.
“Even if crude starts flowing again, it’s not going to fix everything immediately,” Walsh told reporters in Singapore. “It’s going to take months before supply and prices normalise.”
Aviation feels the pinch
South African travellers have already felt the impact, with local airlines quietly hiking ticket prices following the surge in fuel costs. Analysts note this is a familiar pattern: higher crude costs inevitably filter down to consumers. Walsh added that while some international flights have diverted around the Middle East, temporary rerouting can’t replace the efficiency and scale of Gulf carriers and their hubs.
“This is not a short-term patch,” Walsh said. “Gulf hubs will recover quickly, but global aviation will feel the strain for months.”
What it means for travellers
For everyday flyers, this translates into pricier tickets and potentially fewer flight options on certain routes. Social media reactions in South Africa reflect frustration and surprise, with many passengers joking about “Middle East wars making Cape Town flights more expensive than a weekend getaway to Europe.”
Industry insiders suggest that savvy travellers can minimise the impact by booking early or considering alternative carriers, but the broader message is clear: the aviation industry is in for a slow climb back to normal fuel costs, and consumers should buckle up for the ride.
Source: IOL
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