South African farmers are planting less maize and turning to sunflower as the threat of an intense El Niño raises concerns about drought and the summer harvest.
Nick Dubé / Pexels / Illustrative purposes only
Rising fuel and fertiliser costs, lower maize prices and unpredictable rainfall are adding pressure on growers already facing a difficult season.
According to the Crop Estimates Committee, farmers intend to plant 12.37% less maize this season, the lowest planned area in eight years. White maize plantings are expected to fall by more than 18%, while sunflower plantings are projected to increase by almost 45%.
Why sunflower?
Sunflower matures faster than maize and is generally more drought-tolerant, making it an attractive alternative when rainfall is uncertain. Some farmers in the western summer grain regions have already started planting earlier to take advantage of available soil moisture.
The concern is that hot, dry conditions could persist through a critical stage of the growing season. El Niño, a climate pattern associated with drought in parts of southern Africa, is expected to continue into early 2027.
Grain SA chief executive Tobias Doyer told Daily Maverick that farmers are preparing for a potentially shorter growing season, with dry spells between periods of rain.
What it means for food prices
South Africa’s substantial maize reserves, including a reported 4.3 million tonnes of white maize carried over from the previous harvest, offer some protection against a poor season. However, a smaller harvest could tighten supplies and push food prices higher next year.
White maize is a staple for millions of South Africans, making the outcome particularly important for households already struggling with the cost of living.
For now, farmers are adapting as the season unfolds. The Crop Estimates Committee’s first figures for the area actually planted are expected in January.
With rainfall uncertain and production costs climbing, choosing what to plant has become a careful calculation. For many farmers, sunflower could offer a better chance of getting through a season in which every drop of rain counts.
Source (Daily Maverick)
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