Global oil falls, but South Africans won’t feel the relief yet
When news broke on April 8 that the US and Iran were engaging in ceasefire talks contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil prices dipped by roughly 15%—averaging around US$94 (R1 530) per barrel. While international markets cheered, South African travellers hoping for cheaper flights or petrol soon were in for a disappointment.
Experts say local fuel prices won’t immediately reflect the global drop due to supply chain lags, domestic logistics, and constrained refining capacity.
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Why lower oil prices don’t mean instant savings
According to travelnews, Linden Birns, MD of Plane Talking, explained that fuel arriving at South African ports was purchased at higher prices before the recent dip. “Even if Brent remains low, it will take time for these cost savings to filter through the supply chain,” he said. Transporting fuel to refineries and airports also adds a layer of cost, keeping prices elevated for now.
Domestic refining woes are a bigger factor
The shutdown of local refineries since 2021 has left South Africa reliant on imported fuel. Limited domestic production, largely by Sasol and dependent on imported crude, has pushed refining margins higher—a key contributor to jet fuel price spikes. Known in the industry as the “crack spread,” these margins cover production costs and refiner profits, before airlines add transport and storage fees.
IATA CEO Willie Walsh, speaking at the World Data Symposium in Singapore, highlighted that even if the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, it may take months for global jet fuel supplies to recover due to Middle East refining disruptions.
Airlines hold the line on surcharges
South African airlines are continuing to pass high fuel costs onto passengers. Jet fuel at inland airports jumped 115% month-on-month, while coastal airports saw a 145% increase as of April 1.
Airlink CEO de Villiers Engelbrecht said the airline is closely monitoring developments. “We see no need to cancel flights, but fuel surcharges will remain in place,” he explained. FlySafair’s surcharges, which soared nearly 400% in March, remain in effect as well.
What this means for travellers
For now, South African passengers should brace for continued high airfares. While a global dip in oil prices is encouraging, domestic supply dynamics and lingering refining challenges mean that cheaper flights—and petrol—won’t arrive overnight. Savvy travellers may need to watch for incremental adjustments in the coming months, but the era of instant savings after international oil dips is still some distance away.
Source: travelnews
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